Thursday, March 24, 2011

QMJHL PLAYOFFS - ROUND #1 PREDICTIONS


17 year old Halifax Mooseheads forward Martin Frk
enjoyed a successful rookie season, finishing the year
with 22 goals and 50 points in 62 games played. Good
enough for 4th place in league wide rookie scoring. 
Today and tomorrow HockeyPoints will release its predictions for which teams will win each series in round #1 of the QMJHL playoffs.

The playoffs kick off tonight with game #1 of the Montreal-Halifax series being played in Montreal. The other series start tomorrow night.

Today we'll start by placing our bets on the Montreal Juniors / Halifax Mooseheads Series:

Montreal is the clear favorite here. Don't make any mistake about that. The Juniors finished the season with 102 points (2nd overall among the QMJHL's 18 teams), which is more than double the 45 points Halifax were able to earn (good enough for 15th overall league-wide).

Offensively, the Juniors have the edge. They scored 263 times this season for an average of  3.86 goals scored per game (4th best in the league). Meanwhile the Mooseheads recorded only 186 goals for an average of 2.73 goals scored per contest (15th best league wide).

Examining the defensive side of the game, the numbers again look to be in Montreal's favor. Montreal allowed only 185 goals against throughout the year for an average of 2.72 goals against per game (ranking 3rd best in the Q). Halifax was scored on 262 times for an average of 3.85 goals against per game (14 best in the Q).

Further, Jean-Francois Berube's goals against average finished the season at 2.60, good enough to rank him 4th best among league goaltenders.

During the season Montreal and Halifax met three times, with Montreal winning each game by scores of 5-3 (in HAL), 5-2 (in MTL) and 2-1 (in MTL).

Overall Outlook:

The Juniors' deep group of veteran player will be too much for the younger Mooseheads players, especially while under the playoff pressure cooker. Even with forwards Viktor Hertzberg and Philippe Fontaine on the IR likely for most of round #1, the Juniors will be too much for Halifax to handle.

Prediction:

Montreal wins in 4 games.

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